Understand why markets moveMacro data → market odds → price reality. Every number sourced. No investment advice.

US inflation, Fed decisions and jobs data often move crypto and stocks the second they drop. We track the countdown, what the market is betting beforehand, and how hard it hit historically.

These percentages come from Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market. Traders bet real money on whether things happen — the contract price IS the market's live probability. Unlike analyst takes or surveys, being wrong here costs money, so it tends to be more honest. When the odds move, expectations are shifting — often before the news catches up.