BTC: why it moved
Generated 9/10/2026, 8:05:50 AM(New York) · Based on a real data snapshot at generation time
TL;DR
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading around $77,780, showing a slight dip in the last 24 hours and week. This comes as inflation data is anticipated, and market expectations around future interest rate cuts are shifting.
Recent price action
BTC is down 2.3% in the last 24 hours and 1.1% over the past week. The perpetual funding rate is slightly positive at 0.0080%, meaning traders holding long positions are paying a small fee to keep them open. The Fear & Greed Index is at 69, indicating a "Greed" sentiment among investors.
What expectations are shifting
Market expectations show a significant shift away from anticipated Fed rate cuts. The probability of a Fed rate cut by September 2026 has dropped by 1.1 percentage points over the last 30 days to 0%. Similarly, the probability of the Fed not cutting rates at all in 2026 has increased by 7.3 percentage points to 93%. There's also a notable decrease in the probability of Bitcoin reaching $150K by year-end, down 1.2 percentage points to 2%.
The next big event
The upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data for August is due in about 1 day. The market is currently pricing in a 47.5% chance that the annual inflation rate will be exactly 3.4%. Historically, BTC has seen an average fluctuation of ±1.6% in the 24 hours following CPI releases, with prices rising 11 out of the last 14 times. The previous CPI release saw BTC drop 1.3% in the following 24 hours.
Risks
While the market sentiment is generally greedy, the upcoming inflation data could introduce volatility. There's also a headline suggesting sellers might have given up, yet BTC is struggling to hold the $80,000 level, indicating potential underlying selling pressure or a lack of strong buying conviction.