BTC: why it moved
Generated 9/9/2026, 8:05:52 AM(New York) · Based on a real data snapshot at generation time
TL;DR
Bitcoin is trading around $79,330, showing a slight uptick recently. The market seems to be anticipating less aggressive interest rate cuts from the Fed and is less convinced about Bitcoin hitting $150K soon. Upcoming inflation data is a key event to watch.
Recent price action
BTC is up 1.1% in the last 24 hours and 3.5% over the past week. The funding rate for BTC perpetual futures is 0.0059%, meaning traders who are long (betting on price increases) are paying a small fee to keep their positions open. This suggests a generally positive sentiment, but not an overwhelming one. The Fear & Greed Index is at 66, indicating "greed" in the market.
What expectations are shifting
The market's expectations are shifting towards fewer Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. The probability of the Fed cutting rates by September 2026 is currently 0%, down from 1.2 percentage points over the last 30 days. Also, the chance of Bitcoin dipping to $45,000 by the end of 2026 has decreased, with probabilities dropping by 15.5 percentage points in the last 30 days to 8%. Conversely, the probability of the Fed not cutting rates at all in 2026 has increased to 93%. The chance of Bitcoin reaching $150K by year-end has also slightly decreased.
The next big event
The next significant event is the US CPI (Consumer Price Index) inflation data, due in about 2 days. The market is currently pricing in a 44.5% chance that the August US annual inflation rate will be exactly 3.4%. Historically, after such data releases, BTC has seen an average fluctuation of ±1.6% in the following 24 hours, with prices rising 11 out of the last 14 times. The last CPI release saw BTC drop 1.3% in the 24 hours after.
Risks
Ongoing escalations in the Middle East are mentioned as potentially capping crypto prices. News also indicates that Germany's tax-free era for Bitcoin might end, and there's a "now or never" vote for the CLARITY Act on September 15th. Additionally, a new Bitcoin ETF is launching, but some companies are not allowing payments in BTC for products like Bitcoin-themed sneakers.