BTC: why it moved
Generated 9/7/2026, 8:05:59 PM(New York) · Based on a real data snapshot at generation time
TL;DR
Bitcoin is trading around $79,054, showing a slight dip in the last 24 hours but a small gain over the past week. The market is generally in a "greedy" state, but expectations for future interest rate cuts are decreasing.
Recent price action
BTC is currently priced at $79,054. It's down 1.4% in the last 24 hours, but up 0.5% over the last 7 days. The perpetual funding rate is 0.0046%, meaning long-position holders are paying a small fee to keep their positions open. This suggests a slightly more bullish sentiment, but not overwhelmingly so.
What expectations are shifting
Market expectations are shifting away from imminent interest rate cuts. The probability of the Fed cutting rates by September 2026 is currently 0%, down from 1.3 percentage points over the last 30 days. Also, the probability of the Fed not cutting rates at all in 2026 has increased to 93%, up 7.4 percentage points in the last 30 days. However, the probability of Bitcoin dipping to $45,000 by the end of 2026 has decreased by 11.0 percentage points in the last 30 days, now standing at 10%.
The next big event
The next major event is the release of the US CPI inflation data in about 3.5 days. The market is currently pricing in a 45.5% chance that the August US annual inflation rate will be exactly 3.4%. Historically, after CPI releases, BTC has seen an average 24-hour fluctuation of ±1.6%, with prices rising 11 out of the last 14 times. The previous CPI release saw BTC drop 1.3% in the following 24 hours.
Risks
While news like Bernstein's $300,000 price target by 2029 and Brazilian banks expanding crypto offerings are positive, the overall market sentiment is still "greedy" (Fear & Greed Index at 71). The increasing probability of no Fed rate cuts could be a headwind. Also, the market is pricing in a specific inflation number for the upcoming CPI data, and any deviation could cause volatility.