BTC: why it moved
Generated 9/4/2026, 8:05:47 PM(New York) · Based on a real data snapshot at generation time
TL;DR
Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $79,641, with a slight dip in the last 24 hours but a small gain over the past week. Market sentiment is generally greedy, but expectations for future Fed rate cuts are decreasing.
Recent price action
BTC is currently priced at $79,641. It's down 1.6% in the last 24 hours but up 2.5% over the last 7 days. The perpetual funding rate is 0.0009%, meaning long positions are paying a small fee to short positions. This suggests a slightly less enthusiastic bullish sentiment in the derivatives market.
What expectations are shifting
The market's expectation for Federal Reserve rate cuts is shifting. The probability of a 25 basis point cut in September 2026 is now 0%, down from 0.9 percentage points over the last 30 days. Similarly, the probability of the Fed not cutting rates at all in 2026 has increased to 93%. This indicates a growing belief that interest rates might stay higher for longer.
The next big event
The next key event is the US CPI (Consumer Price Index) inflation data, expected in about 6.5 days. The market is currently pricing in a 45.0% chance that the annual inflation rate for August will be exactly 3.4%. Historically, after CPI releases, BTC has seen typical volatility of ±1.6% in the following 24 hours, with an upward move in 11 out of the last 14 instances. The previous CPI release saw BTC drop 1.3% in 24 hours.
Risks
While some predict massive price increases for Bitcoin, recent analysis suggests it's trading more like an "amplified version of gold." The four-year cycle theory might pose a risk of further declines. There's also a low probability (8%) that Bitcoin could dip to $45,000 by the end of 2026, though this probability has decreased significantly over the past month.