BTC: why it moved
Generated 9/1/2026, 8:05:50 PM(New York) · Based on a real data snapshot at generation time
TL;DR
Bitcoin is trading around $77,455, showing a slight dip in the last 24 hours and week. Market sentiment is generally greedy, but expectations for future Fed rate cuts are low.
Recent price action
BTC is currently priced at $77,455. It has seen a 1.5% decrease in the past 24 hours and a 1.5% decrease over the last 7 days. The perpetual funding rate is 0.0079%, meaning long-position holders are paying a small fee to keep their positions open. This suggests a slightly bullish leaning in the derivatives market, but not overwhelmingly so.
What expectations are shifting
The market's expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points in September 2026 is currently very low at 1%. This probability has slightly decreased over the last 7 and 30 days. Similarly, the chance of Bitcoin dipping to $45,000 by the end of 2026 has decreased, now standing at 8%. The probability of the Fed not cutting rates at all in 2026 is high at 89%, and this expectation has slightly increased recently. The chance of Bitcoin reaching $150K by year-end is very low at 3%.
The next big event
The Non-Farm Payrolls report for August 2026 is due in about 2.5 days. Historically, after this data is released, BTC has seen an average fluctuation of ±1.1% in the following 24 hours, with prices moving up 5 out of the last 14 times. The last report in July saw BTC drop 0.2% in the 24 hours after its release.
Risks
There isn't significant news driving BTC's price action right now. The recent price movements are more likely due to natural fluctuations from trading activity. Macro indicators like the 10-year US Treasury yield (4.80%) and the US Dollar Index (99.66) have seen slight increases, which can sometimes put pressure on riskier assets like Bitcoin. The Fear & Greed Index is at 69, indicating "greed" in the market.