BTC: why it moved
Generated 8/31/2026, 8:06:00 PM(New York) · Based on a real data snapshot at generation time
TL;DR
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently priced at $78,695, showing a slight increase of 1.0% in the last 24 hours but a decrease of 1.3% over the past week. Market expectations are shifting, especially regarding interest rates and Bitcoin's price movements.
Recent price action
Bitcoin's price is $78,695, which is relatively stable with a 1.0% increase in the last 24 hours. However, it has dipped by 1.3% over the past week. The perpetual funding rate is at 0.0085%, indicating that long positions (buyers) are currently paying a fee to hold their positions.
What expectations are shifting
Market expectations around interest rates are changing. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in September 2026 is now at 1%, down 0.7 percentage points in the last week. Meanwhile, the likelihood of Bitcoin dipping to $45,000 by December 31, 2026, is only 9%, which is down 1.0 percentage points over the last week. In contrast, the probability that the Fed won't cut rates at all in 2026 is at 89%, up 1.9 percentage points recently.
The next big event
The next significant event is the non-farm payroll report, which will be released in about 3.5 days on September 4 at 20:30 Beijing time. Historically, Bitcoin has shown a typical price fluctuation of ±1.1% within 24 hours after such reports, with 5 out of the last 14 instances resulting in a price increase.
Risks
Currently, there is no clear news driving Bitcoin's price, suggesting that recent movements may be due to natural fluctuations in capital flow. Additionally, external factors like stock market performance and macroeconomic indicators, such as the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield at 4.76%, could impact Bitcoin's future price.