BTC: why it moved
Generated 8/30/2026, 8:06:03 PM(New York) · Based on a real data snapshot at generation time
TL;DR
Bitcoin is trading around $77,805. It's seen a slight dip in the last 24 hours but is mostly flat over the past week. Market expectations for future interest rate cuts are decreasing, and there's a very low probability priced in for Bitcoin reaching $100,000 this month.
Recent price action
BTC is currently priced at $77,805. It's down 0.5% in the last 24 hours and up 0.2% over the last 7 days. The perpetual funding rate is 0.0071%, meaning long-position holders are paying a small fee to keep their positions open. This suggests sentiment is leaning slightly bullish, but not overwhelmingly so. The Fear & Greed Index is at 62, in the "Greed" zone.
What expectations are shifting
Market expectations are shifting away from imminent interest rate cuts. The probability of the Fed cutting rates by September 2026 has dropped to 1% (down 1.0 percentage points in 30 days). Also, the chance of Bitcoin reaching $150K by the end of 2026 is very low at 3% (down 0.6 percentage points in 30 days). The probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 within August is currently 0%.
The next big event
The next major event is the Non-Farm Payrolls report, due in about 4.5 days. Historically, after this data release, BTC has seen an average fluctuation of ±1.1% in the following 24 hours, with prices moving up 5 out of the last 14 times. The last report saw BTC move -0.2% in the 24 hours after its release.
Risks
While BlackRock still sees Bitcoin as a good diversifier, recent news shows Bitcoin ETFs snapping a nine-day inflow streak. Geopolitical events, like US strikes on Iran mentioned in news headlines, can also impact broader market sentiment and risk assets like Bitcoin. The market is pricing in a very low probability (8%) for Bitcoin to dip to $45,000 by the end of 2026, but this is a significant drop from 30 days ago.