BTC: why it moved
Generated 8/29/2026, 8:05:57 PM(New York) · Based on a real data snapshot at generation time
TL;DR
Bitcoin is trading around $78,204. The price has seen small gains recently, but expectations for future price moves are shifting lower.
Recent price action
BTC is up 0.6% in the last 24 hours and 1.2% over the last 7 days. The perpetual funding rate is slightly positive at 0.0083%, meaning long positions are paying a small fee to hold. This suggests a generally neutral to slightly bullish sentiment among traders, but not extreme.
What expectations are shifting
Market expectations are leaning towards fewer Fed rate cuts. The probability of the Fed cutting rates by September 2026 has dropped to 1% (down from 1.7 percentage points over 30 days). Also, the chance of Bitcoin dipping to $45,000 by the end of 2026 has decreased by 14.5 percentage points over 30 days to 9%. Conversely, the probability of the Fed not cutting rates at all in 2026 has increased to 88%. Expectations for a Bitcoin surge to $150K by year-end are very low at 3%.
The next big event
The Non-Farm Payrolls report is due in about 5.5 days. Historically, after this report, BTC has seen an average price swing of ±1.1% in the following 24 hours, with prices moving up 5 out of the last 14 times. The last report saw BTC drop 0.2% in the 24 hours after its release.
Risks
Recent news shows mixed sentiment, with figures like Mark Cuban not impressed by the rally. Some companies like MARA Holdings are seeing price drops linked to Bitcoin's performance. While there's talk of crypto updating the financial system, the immediate price action is relatively subdued. Macro indicators like the US 10-year Treasury yield and the US Dollar Index have seen slight increases.