BTC: why it moved
Generated 8/28/2026, 8:05:56 PM(New York) · Based on a real data snapshot at generation time
TL;DR
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading around $77,814, showing a slight dip of -3.4% in the last 24 hours and -0.2% over the past week. This movement seems to be driven by broader market sentiment rather than specific crypto news.
Recent price action
BTC is down -3.4% in the last 24 hours and -0.2% in the last 7 days. The funding rate for BTC perpetual futures is 0.0100%, meaning long-position holders are paying a small fee to keep their positions open. This suggests a neutral to slightly bearish short-term sentiment. The Fear & Greed Index is at 68, indicating a "Greed" sentiment, which is high but not extreme.
What expectations are shifting
Market expectations for future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are shifting. The probability of the Fed cutting rates by September 2026 has decreased significantly over the last 30 days (-1.9 percentage points to 1%). Similarly, the probability of the Fed not cutting rates at all in 2026 has increased (+2.7 percentage points over 7 days to 88%). For Bitcoin specifically, the expectation of it reaching $150K by year-end has a very low probability (3%), and the chance of it hitting $100K within August is currently 0%. The probability of Bitcoin dipping to $55,000 by December 31, 2026, has decreased over the last 7 days (-0.5 percentage points to 23%), but the 30-day trend shows a significant increase in this possibility (+34.0 percentage points).
The next big event
The next major event is the Non-Farm Payrolls report for August 2026, due in about 6.5 days. Historically, BTC has seen an average fluctuation of ±1.1% in the 24 hours following such reports, with prices moving up 5 out of the last 14 times. The last report in July saw BTC move -0.2% in the 24 hours after its release.
Risks
Broader market conditions, like the rise in the 10-year US Treasury yield (4.72%) and the US Dollar Index (99.68), could be putting pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin. News about MicroStrategy (MSTR) facing potential removal from global equity indexes and a cautious tone from crypto commentators like Kevin O'Leary might also be contributing to sentiment. Coinbase's (COIN) Q2 revenue decline, despite diversification efforts, adds to the mixed picture in the crypto space.