BTC: why it moved
Generated 8/24/2026, 8:05:53 PM(New York) · Based on a real data snapshot at generation time
TL;DR
Bitcoin is trading around $78,945, up 1.6% in the last 24 hours and a significant 22.6% over the past week. This surge seems driven by strong inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, which recently hit a 10-month high.
Recent price action
Bitcoin has seen a strong upward trend, with its price climbing notably. The past week has been particularly good, marking its best performance since 2023 and its largest ever dollar gain. The perpetual funding rate is currently 0.0058%, meaning long-position holders are paying a small fee to keep their positions open, suggesting bullish sentiment. The Fear & Greed Index is at 74, indicating "greed" in the market.
What expectations are shifting
Market expectations are shifting away from a significant Bitcoin dip. The probability of Bitcoin falling to $55,000 by December 31, 2026, has dropped considerably, down 31.5 percentage points in the last 7 days and 29.0 percentage points over 30 days, now sitting at 22%. Conversely, the chance of Bitcoin reaching $150K by the end of 2026 is low at 3%, and the probability of it hitting $100,000 within August is even lower at 1%.
The next big event
The next key event is the Non-Farm Payrolls report, due in about 10.5 days. Historically, after this report is released, Bitcoin has seen an average fluctuation of ±1.1% in the following 24 hours, with prices moving up 5 out of the last 14 times. The last report saw Bitcoin drop 0.2% in the 24 hours after its release.
Risks
While sentiment is positive, risks remain. The market is pricing in a very low chance of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by September 2026. The probability of no rate cuts at all in 2026 is high at 87%. Any unexpected shifts in monetary policy could impact Bitcoin's price.