BTC: why it moved
Generated 8/23/2026, 8:05:56 AM(New York) · Based on a real data snapshot at generation time
TL;DR
Bitcoin is trading around $77,192. It's been pretty flat in the last 24 hours but saw a significant jump of +22.5% over the past week. The market sentiment is leaning towards "greed."
Recent price action
BTC is currently priced at $77,192. It's down -0.1% in the last 24 hours. However, looking at the last 7 days, it's up a strong +22.5%. The funding rate for BTC perpetual futures is 0.0100%, meaning long position holders are paying a small fee to keep their positions open. This usually indicates bullish sentiment. The Fear & Greed Index is at 66, which is in the "greed" zone.
What expectations are shifting
Market expectations are shifting significantly regarding Bitcoin's future price. The probability of Bitcoin dipping to $55,000 by December 31, 2026, has dropped by 30.5 percentage points in the last 7 days, now standing at 27%. Conversely, the probability of Bitcoin reaching $150K by the end of 2026 has slightly increased to 4%. The market is also pricing in a low chance of a Fed rate cut in September 2026, with the probability at just 1%.
The next big event
The next major event to watch is the Non-Farm Payrolls report, scheduled for release in about 12 days. Historically, after this data is released, BTC has seen an average fluctuation of ±1.1% in the following 24 hours, with prices moving up 5 out of the last 14 times. The last report saw BTC move -0.2% in the 24 hours after its release.
Risks
While recent news mentions a potential "altcoin season" and positive outlooks for certain cryptocurrencies, there's also news about Bitcoin slipping under $77,000. Macroeconomic factors like US 10-year Treasury yields at 4.74% and the US Dollar Index at 98.84 could influence the market. The probability of the Fed not cutting rates at all in 2026 is high at 86%, which could be a headwind for risk assets.