BTC: why it moved
Generated 8/22/2026, 8:06:00 AM(New York) · Based on a real data snapshot at generation time
TL;DR
Bitcoin is trading around $77,135. It's up a lot this week (+22.3%) but flat in the last 24 hours (-0.1%). The market is feeling greedy.
Recent price action
BTC has seen a huge jump this past week, gaining over 22%. However, its price has stabilized in the last 24 hours, showing little change. The perpetual funding rate is slightly positive (0.0100%), meaning long positions are paying a small fee to hold. The Fear & Greed Index is at 71, indicating "greed" in the market.
What expectations are shifting
The market's expectation for Bitcoin to dip to $55,000 by the end of 2026 has significantly decreased. The probability dropped 33 percentage points in the last 7 days and 19 points in the last 30 days, now standing at 25%. This suggests traders are less convinced it will fall that low. Expectations for the Fed to cut rates in 2026 are very high (86% chance of zero cuts), with a slight increase in the last week.
The next big event
The next major event is the Non-Farm Payrolls report, expected in about 13 days. Historically, BTC has seen an average fluctuation of ±1.1% in the 24 hours following this data release. The last report saw BTC drop 0.2% in the 24 hours after its release.
Risks
While recent news mentions a potential "altseason" and a "short squeeze" helping Bitcoin hold above $77,000, there's no clear indication of major upcoming catalysts. The market is in a greedy state, which can sometimes precede pullbacks. The probability of Bitcoin reaching $150K by year-end is currently low at 3%.