BTC: why it moved
Generated 8/18/2026, 8:06:03 AM(New York) · Based on a real data snapshot at generation time
TL;DR
Bitcoin is currently trading around $64,337. It saw a small gain in the last 24 hours but has been flat over the past week. Market expectations for Bitcoin's future price have slightly decreased recently.
Recent price action
BTC is trading at $64,337, up 1.2% in the last 24 hours. However, it's flat over the last 7 days. The perpetual funding rate is 0.0078%, meaning traders who are long (expecting prices to rise) are paying a small fee to hold their positions. This suggests a slightly bullish sentiment, but not overwhelmingly so. The Fear & Greed Index is at 41, which is in the "fear" zone, indicating caution among investors.
What expectations are shifting
Market expectations, as priced by Polymarket, show a slight shift away from very bullish scenarios. For example, the probability of Bitcoin reaching $250,000 by December 31st is currently 2%, down 0.1 percentage points over the last 7 days. Similarly, the chance of Bitcoin making a new all-time high by year-end has decreased by 1.0 percentage points in the last week to 3%. Expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 are also becoming less likely, with the probability of no rate cuts at all increasing slightly.
The next big event
The next significant event is the Non-Farm Payrolls report, due in about 17 days. Historically, Bitcoin has seen an average volatility of ±1.1% in the 24 hours following this data release. In the last instance, after the July data was released, BTC dropped 0.2% in the following 24 hours.
Risks
Recent news highlights that Bitcoin might be losing ground to the S&P 500, and some analysts point to a "volatility trap" that could signal a larger move. While some analysts see potential for a "major breakout" in related assets like Ethereum, the overall sentiment and shifting market expectations suggest caution.