BTC: why it moved
Generated 8/17/2026, 8:06:02 PM(New York) · Based on a real data snapshot at generation time
TL;DR
Bitcoin is trading around $64,482, showing a slight increase recently. Market expectations for significant price surges by year-end have become less likely, while the outlook for interest rate cuts by the Fed in 2026 is firming up.
Recent price action
BTC is currently priced at $64,482. It's up 2.5% in the last 24 hours and 0.7% over the past 7 days. The perpetual funding rate is 0.0051%, meaning traders holding long positions (bets on price going up) are paying a small fee to keep their positions open. This suggests sentiment is leaning slightly bullish, but not overwhelmingly so. The Fear & Greed Index is at 41, indicating a "fear" sentiment among investors.
What expectations are shifting
The market's expectation for Bitcoin to reach $250,000 by December 31st has decreased. The probability for this is now 2%, down 0.1 percentage points over the last 7 days and up only 0.2 percentage points over 30 days. Similarly, the chance of Bitcoin hitting a new all-time high by year-end has also lowered to 4%. On the macro front, expectations for the Fed not cutting rates at all in 2026 remain high at 85%, with a slight increase in probability over the last month. The chance of a Fed rate cut in September 2026 is very low at 1%.
The next big event
The next significant event is the Non-Farm Payrolls report, scheduled for release in about 17.5 days. Historically, Bitcoin has seen an average fluctuation of ±1.1% in the 24 hours following such data releases. The last report saw BTC drop 0.2% in the subsequent 24 hours.
Risks
Recent news highlights potential headwinds, with one headline questioning if Bitcoin can withstand high Treasury yields like stocks. There's also concern about potential drops below $60K due to significant outflows from Bitcoin ETFs. However, some news points to positive developments, like JPMorgan raising price targets for Bitcoin miners and a deal involving Anthropic. The Nike stock hitting a 12-year low is also mentioned, posing a question about its risk compared to Bitcoin.